Stratospheric sulfur injection on terrestrial autotroph productivity

Investigation of the effects of stratospheric sulfur injection on terrestrial autotroph productivity via experimentation with diffuse radiation controlled greenhouses
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
1.018/7.30J
Fall 2009
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Executive Summary
Population growth and the development of more energy demanding technologies have
led to an increase in fossil fuel combustion since the Industrial Revolution. As a byproduct of
fossil fuel combustion greenhouse gases have reached unprecedented levels in the
atmosphere. The disruption of Earth’s equilibrium has resulted in the development of several
schemes to mitigate global climate change, one of which is geoengineering - the intentional
manipulation of the environment on a planetary scale.
The focus of this proposal will be on the unintended consequences of one particular
geoengineering scheme: the injection of sulfur aerosols into the stratosphere. Increasing the
concentration of sulfate particles in the atmosphere will increase Earth’s albedo, as these
particles reflect some of the sun’s radiation back into space. Large-scale injection of sulfate
aerosols into the stratosphere can result in unintended consequences such as acid rain, ozone
depletion, and effects on terrestrial productivity.
The experiment described in this proposal was designed to enlighten our understanding
of the implications of stratospheric sulfur injection and yield a better idea of the practicality of
large-scale application. The experiment utilizes a series of diffuse radiation controlled
greenhouses that intend to mimic the affect that sulfate aerosols have on incoming radiation by
use of different greenhouse glazing materials. The goal is to understand how a change in
radiation brought about by stratospheric sulfur injection affects terrestrial autotroph productivity.
The results of this experiment will help to create a more comprehensive and full understanding
of the unintended consequences of injecting sulfur into the stratosphere.
The proposed experiment investigates the effect that alteration of radiation brought
about by stratospheric sulfur injection has on terrestrial productivity. Our results will show either
a positive correlation between alternation of radiation and productivity or they may reveal a
negative relationship. If the results do reveal that increased concentrations of sulfate aerosols
result in increased autotrophic productivity we are actually finding that this particular
geoengineering scheme is dually effective in that it cools the planet by deflecting radiation and
increases the carbon sink potential of terrestrial autotrophs. The ability of stratospheric sulfur
injection to mitigate global change in more than one way would increase the viability of injecting
sulfur into the stratosphere as opposed to other geoengineering schemes.
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An Introduction to Global Climate Change
Since Earth’s formation there have been dramatic and cyclic variations in global climate.
The planetary climatic condition is the result of a complex system dependent on many factors
including Earth’s orbital behavior and the orientation of its axis, continental arrangement,
greenhouse gas concentrations, predominant life forms, and the strength of the sun’s incident
radiation (Desonie). Cyclic changes between glacial periods and interglacial periods are
observed on a geological time frame. A significant concern of modern times is that the growing
human population has induced global climate change through the liberation of copious amounts
of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. As a result of these emissions, we have transformed
atmospheric conditions and the biosphere at large in little more than a century.
The Industrial Revolution of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries resulted in
innumerable technological and scientific advancements. Unfortunately, many detrimental
environmental effects accompanied these improvements. Fossil fuel combustion was used as a
source of energy long before the Industrial Revolution. However, the reliance on fossil fuel grew
exponentially during this time due to significant population growth and the development of more
energy demanding technologies. Carbon dioxide, a radiative forcing greenhouse gas, is a
byproduct of fossil fuel combustion. Thus anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions have grown
since the pre-Industrial era from almost nothing to an annual average of approximately six billion
metric tons (Garrett, 1992). Today, carbon dioxide concentrations are over 100 parts per million
higher than the 280 ppm concentration in existence prior to the Industrial era (Bala, 2009). It is
clearly evident that the momentous anthropogenic rise in carbon dioxide began during the time
of the Industrial Revolution (Figure 1).
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CO2 concentration
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Figure 1 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide concentration over the past 2000
years. (Vitousek, 1994).
The troubling aspect of carbon dioxide growth is that the anthropogenic increase of the
past few centuries is comparable to concentration changes observed in glacial/interglacial
transition periods (Vitousek, 1994). Natural climatic transitions occur over a long period of time
such that adaptation can occur. In contrast, human induced changes have occurred at ten times
this natural rate (Vitousek, 1994). The escalated pace of climate change will require more rapid
adaptation. For that reason, fossil fuel combustion and its rapid effects threaten the future of
many existing species.
In the past, the biogeochemical carbon cycle operated through a balanced cycle of
exchange. Carbon dioxide primarily entered the atmosphere via respiration and the decay of
organic matter. Photosynthesis and deep ocean storage then provided the mechanisms to
balance this system by removing atmospheric carbon dioxide. The anthropogenic increase in
carbon dioxide through fossil fuel combustion, deforestation and concrete manufacturing,
although small in comparison with natural contributions, has disrupted this balance (Garrett,
1992). As displayed in figure 2, the carbon cycle does not have the means to handle the
elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and it follows that much carbon dioxide
remains in the atmosphere.
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Figure 2 Annual fluxes of the sources and sinks of the global carbon
cycle in billions of metric tons of carbon. Sources and sinks flow into
reservoirs such as terrestrial soil and vegetation and deep-sea
sequestration. Sources and sinks include photosynthesis,
decomposition and fossil-fuel combustion and are represented by
arrows in the figure (Garrett, 1992).
Global warming is observed because an increase in greenhouse gas concentration
results in the decrease of unabsorbed radiation escaping back into space. About 30% of the
sun’s radiation reaching Earth is emitted back into space prior to any atmospheric absorption
(Garrett, 1992). Then the impinging radiation interacts with greenhouse gases, such as
methane, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, water vapor and ozone, and is reradiated in the form of
infrared radiation (Garrett, 1992). The result is a warming effect on Earth’s surface greater than
that which can be explained by the sun’s incident radiation alone (Grassl, 2009). This is known
as the greenhouse effect.
Rapid global climate change has large-scale ecological effects on the biosphere. The
increase in carbon dioxide, a reactant in photosynthesis, allows for the increase of
photosynthetic rates. Some autotrophic species are able to adapt to the environmental change
more quickly than others and will therefore gain a competitive advantage from increased carbon
dioxide (Fajer, 1989). Another ecological problem arises in that the plants that do take
advantage of carbon dioxide more effectively will be producing tissues with lower nutrient
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concentrations (Fajer, 1989). Therefore the growth rates of herbivores, decomposers, and other
organisms further along the food chain will be hindered and the survival of such populations will
be threatened (Fajer, 1989). Global climate change also affects biodiversity because as the
locations of specific ecological environments shift species will need to redistribute themselves in
order to survive. For example, the four degree Celsius rise of freshwater temperature expected
in the near future will restrict the range that certain freshwater species can survive to a smaller
latitudinal range. (Heino, 2009).
The global climate change stimulated by human action will have a large influence on our
species as well. Glaciers in the arctic regions have already begun to melt and in consequence
seawater elevation is rising. It is predicted that within this century seawater elevation will rise
between .18 and .59 meters (Dupont, 2008). This could render fertile coastal land unproductive
and provoke food shortages. In addition to temperature rise, global climate change will
encompass fluctuations in rainfall patterns. Rainfall fluctuations could create new areas of water
shortages, thereby increasing the number of people with inadequate water supply (Dupont,
2008).
The conditions that exist on Earth are the result of ecological evolutionary adaptations
that have taken place over the course of millennia (Remmert, 1980). The human species can
exist only in the conditions that are now present (Remmert, 1980). Our own anthropogenic
emissions threaten our species and the world at large. Global climate change and its effects
have recently gained much publicity and have instigated growing concern of what the future
may hold. Scientists and policymakers have been trying to discover practical, efficient methods
to ameliorate the impact of human induced climate change. Geoengineering has arisen as a
potential strategy that involves the intentional manipulation of the environment on a planetary
scale.
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Geoengineering
Large-scale manipulation of the environment is not a geoengineering innovation; the
idea has been around for quite some time. In fact, Arrhenius predicted the effects of significant
fossil fuel combustion as early as 1905 (Keith, 2000). Although the analysis of Arrhenius and his
contemporaries focused on agricultural benefits that would arise from increased carbon dioxide,
their predictions did hint at the idea of environmental manipulation. In the 1960’s a scheme very
similar to today’s geoengineering arose known as weather and climate modification (Keith,
2000). The United States and the U.S.S.R. planned to manipulate the environment via macroscale engineering schemes. Both geoengineering and weather and climate modification have
scale and intent in common; however, the intent of the two are quite different. The goal of
weather and climate modification was to improve the natural climate and palliate natural
hazards, while geoengineering aims to mitigate anthropogenic climatic effects. Since the 1960s
the seriousness of carbon dioxide concentration growth has been realized and emphasis has
shifted from improving the natural climate to saving the natural climate.
Figure 3 Major geoengineering schemes including nutrient
addition, reforestation, increasing surface albedo and the
injection of stratospheric aerosols. The black arrowheads are
indicative of short wave radiation reflected back into space
while the white arrows symbolize carbon movement (Lenton,
2009).
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Geoengineering strategies can be divided into two principle categories; schemes that
reduce the amount of solar radiation absorbed by Earth and schemes that increase the amount
of radiation emitted (Figure 3).
The reduction of radiation absorption can be accomplished by limiting the quantity of
solar radiation that impinges upon the atmosphere in the first place or by increasing Earth’s
reflectivity or albedo. Proposed methods to reduce incoming radiation are the placement of
reflective sunshades at the Lagrange point between the Sun and the Earth where gravity is
minimized or placing smaller mirrors into orbits around Earth (Bala, 2009). Albedo enhancement
can be accomplished through the injection of sulfur into the stratosphere, increasing cloud
condensation nuclei, or even increasing urban albedo by painting roofs white (Lenton, 2009).
The other branch of geoengineering schemes expands off of the idea that the
greenhouse effect can be mitigated by the removal of excess carbon dioxide. These schemes
typically involve the transfer of atmospheric carbon dioxide to terrestrial systems, to the deep
ocean, or to deep geological formations (Bala, 2009). Of the presented geoengineering
schemes, this discussion will focus on the injection of sulfur into the stratosphere.
Geoengineering by the Stratospheric Injection of Sulfur
It is likely that volcanic eruption was the inspiration for the geoengineering method of
stratospheric sulfur injection. Volcanic eruptions release large quantities of various gases,
including sulfate aerosols, into the atmosphere (Brovkin, 2009). In the first few years after a
volcanic eruption, a cooler climate may be observed due to sulfate aerosols responsible for
increased albedo. In a volcanically inactive year sulfate stratospheric additions total about 0.1
teragrams (Rasch, 2008). The eruption of Mount Pinatubo resulted in a stratospheric sulfur
addition of 100 times the annual contributions of inactive years (Rasch, 2008). This
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geoengineering method is based upon the ability of stratospheric sulfate aerosols to increase
reflectivity, as it is known to do in the case of volcanic eruptions. The natural and artificial
methods of sulfur injection are shown in figure 4.
Figure 4 Stratospheric sulfur injection mimics volcanic
eruption. Both processes increase sulfate aerosol
concentration and increase planetary reflectivity.
Source: http://www.nature.com/ nature/journal/v447
/n7141/full/447132a.html
The geoengineering scheme departs from the volcanic eruption analogue in that the
sulfur must remain in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the radiative imbalance. There are
many reasons why sulfur injection must take place in the stratosphere rather than the
troposphere. First of all, anthropogenic sulfur emissions in the troposphere have resulted in acid
rain (Kravitz, 2009). Secondly, the mean residence time of sulfur in the troposphere is only
about a week while that of sulfur in the stratosphere is on the order of a few years (Crutzen,
2006). The longer mean residence time of sulfur in the stratosphere means that it will be
possible for the sulfate aerosols to achieve a higher degree of dispersal and will require less
frequent injections. Although this method of geoengineering involves a large change in
stratospheric sulfur content, when taken into the context of the atmosphere at large the net
sulfur change is not as significant and therefore less likely to produce undesirable environmental
effects.
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Several methods have been proposed for the physical addition of sulfur to the
stratosphere. All injections will be strategically located near an upward bound flow within the
stratospheric circulation system to encourage thorough distribution and longer stratospheric
lifetime (Crutzen, 2006). Proposed methods of injection include use of artillery shells and
balloons to carry sulfur up to the stratosphere and release it once there. Other methods include
sulfur injection via aircraft jet exhaust and long-term plume processing (Rasch, 2008). It is
estimated that the annual addition of approximately 5 teragrams of sulfur could balance the
warming effect caused by doubled carbon dioxide concentration (Crutzen, 2006).
Many factors influence the effectiveness of sulfate aerosols upon their injection into the
stratosphere. Many of the proposed methods involve the transformation of injections from
hydrogen sulfide and diatomic sulfur to sulfur dioxide and eventually to sub-micrometer sulfate
particles (Crutzen, 2006). Particle growth is a function of vapor deposition and concentration of
the sulfur compound in question (Rasch, 2008). Lower concentrations of sulfur correspond with
lower partial pressures and the particles remain small (Bauman, 2003). Higher concentrations of
sulfur compounds, such as those experienced after volcanic eruption, result in an increase in
particle size. There is an inverse relationship between particle size and the ability to scatter light
efficiently: smaller particles are more effective albedo enhancers than larger sulfur particles
(Bauman).
Since geoengineering involves the manipulation of the environment on a planetary scale,
the associated effects will be felt worldwide. Although geoengineering intends to mitigate global
warming, there is a possibility that negative consequences may arise. It is very difficult to
understand the full range of effects that geoengineering schemes could entail because there are
innumerable variables in ecological science. Thorough experimentation must be conducted and
the long-term effects of geoengineering must be more completely understood before we should
consider geoengineering as the best solution to the global climate change dilemma at hand.
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Potential Effects of Stratospheric Sulfur Injection
Several potential unintended consequences of stratospheric sulfate aerosol manipulation
have already been focal points of debate. The destruction of ozone, sulfur depositions, and
effects on the terrestrial biosphere, which will be the primary focus of this proposal, are
prospective unintended consequences.
Ozone Destruction
The analog between volcanic eruptions and geoengineering by the injection of sulfate
aerosols into the stratosphere may hold true for the effect on ozone as well. The 1982 El
Chichon eruption released 3 – 5 terragrams of sulfur into the atmosphere and brought about
destruction of approximately 16% of the ozone at an altitude of 20 km in mid-latitude regions
(Hofmann, 1989).
The physical ability of sulfate aerosols to destroy ozone relies on several factors. Sulfur
particles provide a surface that chlorine can utilize to become more reactive and capable of
ozone destruction. An increase in sulfur aerosol concentration therefore involves an increase in
the potential for the activation of chlorine (Tilmes, 2008). There is a direct relationship between
the potential for the activation of chlorine and ozone loss (Figure 1). By association we can then
say that the manipulation of sulfate aerosols will result in increased ozone loss.
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negligible compared to that due to pollution (Robock, 2008). Experiments have been done to
investigate acid deposition associated with sulfuric stratosphere injection and have produced
results that support the previous estimate. That is, the values of acid deposition are below
critical levels that would negatively affect most ecosystems (Kravitz, 2009). Environments
without adequate methods of buffering acidity, such as freshwater ecosystems, are vulnerable
to harm by increased acid deposition (Kravitz, 2009).
Effect on Terrestrial Productivity
There is still much uncertainty associated with the potential effects of sulfuric stratosphere
manipulation on the terrestrial biosphere. The intent of injecting sulfur dioxide into the
stratosphere is to increase the planet’s albedo and thereby reflect more incident radiation back
into space. Aerosols also have another effect on incoming radiation; as light enters the aerosolenriched stratosphere it will be reflected and reradiated such that diffuse radiation reaching the
surface will increase.
The photosynthetic process is dependent on light. Thus, variations in light brought about
by albedo enhancement will affect rates of photosynthesis and consequently plant growth and
primary production. By removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere photosynthetic organisms
play an integral part in the biogeochemical carbon cycle. In the global climate change dilemma
that we face today the efficiency of terrestrial carbon sinks is of critical importance.
Estimates concerning the effect of increased sulfate aerosols on terrestrial productivity
have been made and experiments to test these theories have been conducted. Some experts
have reasoned that the reduction in incoming solar radiation will decrease the photosynthetically
active radiation impinging upon the terrestrial biosphere and negatively affect net primary
productivity (Govindasamy, 2002). But a thorough review of relevant literature reveals that there
is not a consensus on this issue.
Other predictions have been made stating that a geoengineered stratosphere will actually
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increase the diffuse radiation reaching the Earth’s surface (Gu, 2003). At first it may seem
counterintuitive that this albedo enhancement method would result in increased diffuse radiation
because it involves deflecting incoming direct radiation. Injection of sulfur into the stratosphere
does decrease the total global solar radiation, a sum of the diffuse radiation and direct radiation
(Gu, 2003). However, increased stratospheric aerosol concentrations results in an increase in
diffuse radiation (Gu, 2003).
Experimentation has already tested the effect of modified radiation intensities on terrestrial
productivity but there is room for improvement. The lack of a consensus among experts reflects
that the many complex factors impacting the relationship between a sulfate aerosol enhanced
stratosphere and terrestrial productivity make accurate prediction extremely difficult (Gu, 2003;
Wuebbles, 2001; Govindasamy, 2002). Further experimentation to prove and expand upon past
results is necessary to better understand what global aerosol manipulation will mean for net
primary productivity.
A Review of Relevant Past Experiments
A 2001 study by Wuebbles et al. found that a 1.8% decrease in solar radiation did not
cause any significant reduction in net primary productivity (Wuebbles, 2001). A similar
experiment by Govindasamy reproduced similar results and it was concluded that small
variations in incident sunlight would not have a significant effect on plant productivity
(Govindasamy, 2002). These studies made use of climate modeling technologies and
Govindasamy acknowledges that his experiment lacks a representation of the oceanic system
and potential feedbacks that it may involve (Govindasamy, 2002). Climate models are still being
developed and perfected so that they can address the complex components of the biosphere as
accurately as possible. But this is an ongoing field of research and thus no climate model is
without imperfection. An in situ experiment that produced results similar to that produced by
climate modeling would strengthen the reliability of the climate modeling result: that
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stratosphere aerosol manipulation does not significantly affect primary production.
Experimentation via Diffuse Radiation Controlled Greenhouses (DRCG)
Uncertainty still exists in regard to the effect of stratospheric sulfur injection on terrestrial
productivity. Because the earth system is very complex and therefore difficult to model past
experimentation has yielded inconsistent conclusions. The proposed experiment makes use of
diffuse radiation controlled greenhouses (to be abbreviated DRCG) for a long-term investigation
of the effect of a geoengineered stratosphere on productivity.
Hypotheses of the DRCG experiment
I. Because the injection of sulfate aerosols into Earth’s stratosphere will result in increased
levels of diffuse radiation there will be an increase in terrestrial autotroph productivity.
II. The injection of sulfate aerosols also results in decreased direct radiation, which will act
to lower primary productivity. However, the net change in productivity will be positive
because plants are able to make better use of diffuse radiation than they can of direct
radiation.
III. Increased stratospheric aerosol concentration may not have a significant effect on
terrestrial autotrophs at first. However, the ability of some plants to make better use of
diffuse radiation than others could modify biodiversity in the long run.
Recreating the Terrestrial Biosphere for Experimentation
The only way to completely understand the full range of effects brought on by stratosphere
aerosol manipulation would be to implement this geoengineering scheme on a global scale.
However, this is a catch-22; we cannot put the biosphere at risk without knowing the range and
severity of the consequences. Instead, we design experiments to mimic the biosphere to the
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best of our ability.
To test the effect of manipulated radiation on productivity this experiment will make use of
a series of greenhouses. Each greenhouse will contain an isolated ecosystem modeled after
three ecosystems that greatly contribute to global primary productivity. The ecosystems to be
replicated in the greenhouses include tropical rain forests, temperate deciduous forests and
grasslands. Two greenhouses will be placed at each location: one control and one DRCG. The
greenhouses will contain a ventilation system to control the temperature when it has become
too hot or too cold. There will also be a plumbing system to maintain the correct level of
moisture in the soil and air.
The greenhouse environments will mimic the environments they represent. They will be
placed in their natural environment so as to receive the natural amount of incident sunlight. This
means that the tropical rainforest greenhouse will be placed in Brazil, the temperate deciduous
forest greenhouse in New York and the grassland greenhouse in Texas.
The environment of the tropical rainforest greenhouse will be specifically modeled after
Latin American rain forests and will therefore be kept at a temperature of 26° C and receive
4000 mm of precipitation each year (Smith, 2001). Plant species will include mango trees,
yagrumo macho and trumpet trees but the replicated biodiversity will not be limited to these few
listed species because rainforests are especially diverse ecosystems (Lopes, 2009).
The temperate deciduous forest greenhouse will be characterized by European beech,
ashes, birches, and elm trees (Smith, 2001). The temperature should vary seasonably with the
surroundings between average lows of 20° F and highs of about 70° F, with about 980 mm of
precipitation a year (National Weather Service, 2009).
The Texas grassland greenhouse would be modeled after the Texas blackland prairies,
with temperatures varying from 35° F to 95° F and having a yearly rainfall of about 880 mm
(National Weather Service, 2009). The flora of this greenhouse would predominately be big and
little bluestem grasses, Indian grass, gamagrass and switchgrass (World Wildlife Fund, 2001).
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Experimental Variable: Greenhouse Glazing and Diffuse Radiation
Greenhouse coverings and stratospheric aerosols affect incoming radiation in a similar
way. Greenhouse glazing reflects direct radiation and therefore decreases the direct radiation
that reaches the plants (Giacomelli, 1993). Like stratospheric aerosol injection, greenhouse
glazing also increases diffuse radiation reaching plants (Giacomelli, 1993). The greenhouse
covering’s effect on incoming radiation is summarized in figure 3. The greenhouse serves as a
good analog to model the effect of this geoengineering scheme without physically manipulating
the atmosphere.
Figure 3 The effect of double polyethylene layer on
incoming radiation. The red arrows represent diffuse
radiation that is magnified by the glazing. The yellow
arrows are direct radiation, some of which is reflected
at the surface.
The variable in this experiment is incoming diffuse radiation. Different greenhouse glazing
materials will be utilized to manipulate and control the levels of diffuse radiation. To model the
natural state the control greenhouse will be constructed of thin glass because this glazing does
not manipulate incoming radiation to the extent that other materials do (Giacomelli, 1999). The
experiment does not take the control to be the natural environment because there are factors
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such as predation, variation in nutrients and weather that might not be mimicked within the
experimental greenhouse. To learn about the effect of reduced direct radiation and increased
diffuse radiation we need to keep all the other factors constant.
The experimental greenhouse at each location will be composed of a double-layered
polyethylene glaze. Transmittance () is defined as the ratio between radiation impinging on the
greenhouse covering (I0) and radiation within the greenhouse (I) (Giacomelli, 1993). That is,
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Experimentation on double polyethylene glaze has measured its transmittance to be 80%
(Giacomelli, 1999). A single layer of polyethylene results in 29% diffusion beneath the glaze
while a double layer of polyethylene results in a 40% diffusion (Giacomelli, 1999).
Another factor to consider is the presence of structural support beams. Structural beams
can block incoming radiation of certain orientations and create excess shadows. An ideal
greenhouse would be one without bulky support beams and certain polyethylene greenhouse
coverings do not require structural support. To ensure similarity between the control and
experimental greenhouses the same structural supports will be used in both greenhouses.
The constructed greenhouses will be on the order of magnitude of the Eden project
greenhouses. A photo of the Eden project greenhouse domes is shown in figure 4. The size of
the Mediterranean biome of the Eden project has been chosen for replication in this experiment.
The proposed greenhouses will be 30 m high and cover an area of 6540 m 2 (“Mediterranean
Biome”). This large size will allow for a more accurate representation of the ecosystem in
question than a smaller greenhouse could.
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Figure 4 The Eden Project in Cornwall, England. The Eden
Project is a tourist attraction that features the largest
greenhouses in the world. Ecosystems from around the world
are recreated in the biomes. Source: http://botanytcd.files.
wordpress.com/2009/09/eden-project.jpg
Measuring Net Primary Productivity
Net primary productivity is defined as the total growth of organic material in a set period of
time (Clark, 2001). Therefore, to measure autotrophic productivity we will consider all of the new
plant components, including new leaves, branches, seeds, roots, etc. (Clark, 2001).
Within the greenhouse random quadrats will be selected and the change in biomass will
be measured and recorded on a monthly basis. The monthly collection of data will include
measuring the dry weight by clipping vegetation and also collecting the dead vegetation in the
given quadrat (“Estimation of NPP,”). NPP will then be calculated using the equation of Weigert
and Evans from 1964 (where r is the rate of decomposition):
NPP = Biomass + Total Dead + r (Total Dead)
This experiment is intended to run continuously for several decades to quantify the long-term
responses of terrestrial autotrophs to sulfate aerosol manipulation. The specific duration of
experimentation will be dependent on the results of the experiment and whether the results
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seem worthy of continued study.
Expected Results
Past experiments and studies provide information that allows us to make conjectures
about the results of the proposed DRCG experiment. Many predictions of potential effects of
injecting sulfur into the stratosphere have relied on the proposed geoengineering scheme’s
similarity to volcanic eruptions. Lianhung Gu and colleagues have studied the effects of the
Mount Pinatubo eruption on Harvard forest (2003). Their experiment examined the effect that
increased diffuse radiation, brought about by volcanic eruption, had on Harvard forest’s
productivity. As shown in figure 2, they found that both diffuse solar radiation and rates of
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Figure 2 Effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption observed at Harvard Forest 2a)
Diffuse Solar Radiation vs. Solar Elevation Angle 2b) Gross Photosynthetic Rate vs.
Solar Elevation Angle. In the years following the 1991 eruption both diffuse radiation
and the rate of photosynthesis increased (Adapted from Gu, 2003).
Injection of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere by volcanic eruptions is an isolated and
infrequent occurrence. However, in order to mitigate global climate change the injection of sulfur
into the stratosphere would need to happen continuously for very long periods of time. While the
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analogy with volcanic eruption might hold at first we do not know if and by how much the effects
will deviate from the natural analog upon continuous implementation. We cannot expect all of
our concerns and questions to be addressed by studies on volcanic eruptions that lack
continuous implementation necessary to mitigate global climate change. Further
experimentation that examines the effects of continuous implementation, such as the proposed
DRCG experiment, needs to be done in order to better understand the practicality of mitigating
global climate change through stratospheric sulfur injection.
The expectation that stratospheric sulfur injection results in increased autotrophic
productivity is further supported by agricultural principles established by crop and forest
scientists (Gu, 2003). It has been shown that plant canopies have higher photosynthetic
efficiencies when using diffuse radiation as opposed to from direct radiation (Gu, 2003). Diffuse
radiation reaches plants at many different angles and therefore allows a greater portion of the
plant’s surface to photosynthesize.
Much attention is often drawn to the negative unintended consequences of
geoengineering but I predict this experiment will reveal a positive one; that stratospheric sulfur
injection increases net primary productivity. If the experiment does find that alteration of
incoming radiation fosters primary productivity we are actually increasing the ability of primary
producers to act as carbon sinks. Some geoengineering schemes focus solely on enhancing
terrestrial autotrophs’ carbon sink potential. Stratospheric sulfur injection may prove to be dually
effective in that it creates a cooling effect by decreasing the direct radiation reaching the surface
while it also increases terrestrial carbon sink potential and removes carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere.
Recommendations and Concluding Discussion
The proposed DRCG experiment focuses on the terrestrial autotroph response to
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alteration of radiation brought about by the injection of sulfur into the stratosphere. The oceans
cover 71% of the Earth’s surface and it is therefore very important to investigate the aquatic
response to radiation alteration due to stratospheric sulfur injection as well. The aquatic
component is out of the scope of the proposed DRCG experiment but it is something that should
be investigated to gain a better understanding of the implications of the worldwide
implementation of stratospheric sulfur injection.
Stratospheric sulfur injection and geoengineering schemes at large involve the
manipulation of the environment on a planetary scale. Yes, we can design experiments to
enlighten our understanding of the implications of geoengineering schemes. We may find that
some experiments reveal positive unintended consequences while others reveal different
negative consequences. Yet, even if we do test the geoengineering scheme in every way that
we can fathom there will still remain unrealized and unpredictable side effects. We cannot
accurately model our biosphere and all of its complex functions as of now so a complete
understanding of geoengineering implications cannot be realized without physical
implementation.
Intentionally manipulating the global environment may not be the best idea to mitigate
climate change. However, testing geoengineering schemes is important because as other
efforts, such as reducing carbon dioxide emissions, continue to fall through geoengineering may
be something we are forced to rely on to save our planet. If this worst-case scenario were to
arise we would be much better prepared to cope with potential side effects if we had analyzed
them to the best of our ability. I have proposed the DRCG experiment for this very reason: to
enlighten our understanding of the implications of geoengineering by stratospheric sulfur
injection.
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